Danish selection summary
Does this mean that the F-35 is vastly superior to its competitors and that Belgium should buy it as well?
Well, on one hand it reaffirms the F-35 project. But Denmark will only buy 28 aircraft to replace 48 F-16's. The F-35 came on top in the Danish selection but these procedures can be very specific because of local factors. Denmark was already a partner of the F-35 programme. Partner nations can buy the F-35 cheaper than countries who have not joined. According to the Danes the F-35 was the cheapest option but it's unclear if the money already invested was counted in or not. It is safe to assume that for Belgium the cost would be higher for the F-35 but similar for the other two aircraft.
The Danes also made a few unusual assumptions regarding the price of the aircraft. They compared 34 Typhoons to 28 F-35's and 38 Super Hornets. Weird, very weird.
Their argument is that 28 F-35's can do the same as a larger number of the other aircraft. Mostly because the F-35 is designed to fly 8000 hours compared to 6000 of the other two. I can partly understand the logic but still. This assumes that the F-35 will really have a longer service life. There is no way to be sure of that. I doubt that there are any F-35 airframes who already have 8000 flight hours. It also means that Denmark will have a very small airforce. I am a bit worried that very few aircraft will be available at any time considering training, maintenance downtime, airspave patrol etc. It also means that any losses because of accidents etc will have a big impact on the fighter fleet. Denmark tends to send a group of 6-8 fighters on foreign deployment. That is 6-8 out of about 48 F-16's. With a smaller future air force their deployment capability will most likely shrink to 4 planes or less.
Also it's worth it to consider the payload of these three fighters:
34 Typhoons: 34x 13 hardpoints, 7500 kg = 255000 kg on 442 hardpoints
38 Super Hornets: 28 x 11 hardpoints, 8050 kg = 305900 kg on 418 hardpoints
28 F-35 JSF: 28 x 10 hardpoints 8160 kg = 228480 kg on 280 hardpoints
28 F-35 JSF internal only: 4 hardpoints 1360 kg = 38080 kg on 112 hardpoints
It is possible that the F-35 will reach 8000 flight hours but I doubt if the smaller number of aircraft can really match a larger number of the other fighters in real life operations. At least considering payload issues.
Belgium
So there is another European country that has picked the F-35. Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands were the other partners when Belgium picked the F-16. All three have selected the F-35. Belgium should definatley pick a fighter that is is use with some other European countries. So F-35 just got another bonus. But still, things are different for Belgium. Belgium is not a partner of the JSF programme. Our F-35 would be more expensive. I doubt whether there would be any economic or technological benefits left for us after all the others had their pick.It is possible that some other companies could offer much better offset deals to Belgium, especially Dassault.
One of my biggest issue with the F-35 is that I don't want to put too many eggs in one basket. The F-35 has had many technical issues and problems, even now. It might work all properly in the future but it is still dangerous to rely to much on one design. A serious software bug or a problem with the ALIS system could ground an entire fleet. That's why it's good to have some diversity. I also believe that a mix of stealth aircraft and 4+ generation fighters is the best option.
So I still think that it's worth to consider other options for Belgium, especially the Rafale and Gripen NG. Countries like Denmark seem to rely on a smaller and smaller air force. It would be good for Belgium to consider bringing some extra force presence by either buying a large number of Gripen NG's or buy purchasing the Rafale with its huge payload of 9500 kg.
It all about the balance between quantity vs quality and capability vs reliability.
